The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale from July 16 in the 154th edition of golf’s oldest major, and the setup for this one is close to ideal. A defending champion in the form of his life, a clear challenger who has just won back-to-back Masters titles, an Englishman with a genuine home-course advantage, and one of the most celebrated links venues on the rota.
The betting markets have been moving since last summer, and the closer July gets, the more interesting the picture becomes.
A course that has always rewarded the right kind of champion
Royal Birkdale has a clean record when it comes to producing worthy Claret Jug winners. Arnold Palmer won there in 1961. Lee Trevino in 1971. Tom Watson in 1983. Tiger Woods in 2006. Jordan Spieth, in what remains one of the great Open performances of the modern era, scrambled and improvised his way to the title in 2017 despite conditions that threatened to unravel the entire field.
The course does not flatter the undeserving. It is long, precise, and wind-dependent in a way that separates ball-strikers from shot-makers very quickly.
That history is part of what makes the pre-tournament build-up so compelling for anyone following the game closely. The course characteristics narrow the genuine contenders to a manageable shortlist, which makes the weeks before the first tee shot particularly useful for studying the form.
For those who enjoy following the odds alongside the golf, try these safe betting sites to track how the market is pricing the field as the tournament approaches. The lines on a course like Royal Birkdale tend to reflect real analysis rather than name recognition, which makes them worth reading as a form guide in their own right.
Scheffler and McIlroy: When the market gets it right
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush by four shots, finishing 17 under par in what was a dominant wire-to-wire performance. He arrives at Royal Birkdale as both defending champion and world number one, and the betting market has him as the clear favourite at around 4/1. That is a shorter price than any rational Open punter would want to take, but the case for him is straightforward: he is the best player in the world on a course that rewards elite ball-striking above everything else.
Rory McIlroy is the more interesting proposition. He has won back-to-back Masters titles, which means his major championship form in 2026 is as good as anyone’s in recent memory. He finished T7 at Royal Birkdale the last time The Open was here in 2017, and his links record over the last decade is consistently strong.
The gambling market has him close behind Scheffler at around 6/1 to 8/1, and many analysts consider that the fairest price in the outright field. Golf Today’s Open Championship coverage will track both players’ preparation closely as July approaches.
The names beneath the top two worth your attention
Tommy Fleetwood is the player this tournament was almost made for. He lives near Royal Birkdale, knows the course as well as anyone in the field, and has been in the form of his career in 2026 with five top-tens already, including a T5 at the Truist Championship. At 25/1 he represents the kind of each-way value that serious golf-betters look for in a major: a player with genuine course knowledge, current form, and a price that reflects the depth of the field rather than any weakness in his game.
Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele sit in the mid-market at around 12/1 and 14/1 respectively. Both have strong links pedigrees. Rahm’s record at Open Championships is persistently underrated given his ball-flight and patience under pressure, and Schauffele, despite a quieter 2026 by his standards, has the major championship experience to contend whenever the field tightens on Sunday afternoon.
What the course demands and why It shapes the market
Royal Birkdale is a par 70 stretching just under 7,200 yards with willow scrub lining every fairway and a wind off the Irish Sea that can shift the effective playing length of any hole by 20 to 30 yards on a given day. The R&A, which administers the Championship, sets the course up to reward accuracy and course management over raw distance. That framing matters for anyone studying the betting form, because it means the players who rely on overpowering layouts will struggle here in a way they would not at Augusta or Aronimink.
The practical result is that form guides built on recent results at links events carry more weight for Royal Birkdale than almost any other major venue. The Genesis Scottish Open the week before, played at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, will offer a meaningful data point on who is hitting the ball right for links conditions. Several of the most significant betting market moves in Open Championship history have happened after that event, and 2026 is unlikely to be different.
Getting the most out of The Open this July
The Open is four days of golf that reward sustained attention in a way the other majors do not always manage. The weather variability on a links course means the draw can affect outcomes significantly, which is why following the morning and afternoon wave scoring patterns matters as much as watching individual players. The leader-board at Royal Birkdale has a habit of looking entirely different on Friday afternoon than it did on Thursday morning.
For those who like to stay close to the odds as the tournament unfolds, live betting on golf has improved considerably in the last two years. In-play markets on round leaders, top nationalities, and first-round scores open alongside the tee times and update continuously. Used well and through the right platforms, they add a useful layer to the watching experience without becoming the focus of it.